Down down down ...
OK I'm losing. Quite consistently at the moment. There are three possibilities.
One: Bad run, variance, it'll happen, keep playing you'll get out of it.
Two: I'm not playing as well as I was and I've moved from being a winning player to being a losing one.
Three: I never was a winning player (at the $26s). My sample size was too small to be able to meaningfully estimate my ROI and I'm just returning to my normal level.
There is some element of them all going on. I am running badly. I'm getting sucked out on too much, and critically at the wrong times. Also I'm sucking out on opponents much less often than I should be.
While I am generally happy with my play its not perfect. I think I am slightly too loose in the early game, but my post-flop play has improved in terms of putting opponents on hands. I am definitely floating too much though.
Finally, my ROI was definitely unsustainable, so it will drift down over time. You never expect 30 buy-in downswings to happen, but you do know they will do. Its quite possible I'm only 1/2 way through it.
There are a couple of good things about this happening now.
1) Its not when I'm in Vegas. I'd hate to run ice-cold there.
2) There is time for me to get the money back.
If things carry on though I'll either have to have a break and study some of my games (which I should do more than I do anyway) or move down in an effort to regroup.
I don't know exactly how many buy-ins I'm down. I thought I was down about $1k, but it may "only" be about $750. After a while you don't want to count. Its straight down at the moment. I've had 2 min-cashes in this time and nothing else.
The trick (I hope) is just to keep playing well and wait for the luck to turn.
One: Bad run, variance, it'll happen, keep playing you'll get out of it.
Two: I'm not playing as well as I was and I've moved from being a winning player to being a losing one.
Three: I never was a winning player (at the $26s). My sample size was too small to be able to meaningfully estimate my ROI and I'm just returning to my normal level.
There is some element of them all going on. I am running badly. I'm getting sucked out on too much, and critically at the wrong times. Also I'm sucking out on opponents much less often than I should be.
While I am generally happy with my play its not perfect. I think I am slightly too loose in the early game, but my post-flop play has improved in terms of putting opponents on hands. I am definitely floating too much though.
Finally, my ROI was definitely unsustainable, so it will drift down over time. You never expect 30 buy-in downswings to happen, but you do know they will do. Its quite possible I'm only 1/2 way through it.
There are a couple of good things about this happening now.
1) Its not when I'm in Vegas. I'd hate to run ice-cold there.
2) There is time for me to get the money back.
If things carry on though I'll either have to have a break and study some of my games (which I should do more than I do anyway) or move down in an effort to regroup.
I don't know exactly how many buy-ins I'm down. I thought I was down about $1k, but it may "only" be about $750. After a while you don't want to count. Its straight down at the moment. I've had 2 min-cashes in this time and nothing else.
The trick (I hope) is just to keep playing well and wait for the luck to turn.
posted by PP at 10:11 AM
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